cell phones everywhere

in 2004, the number of cell phones passed the number of land lines, 181.1 million to 177.9 million. 6% of people have gone cell phone only. the trend will likely accelerate as young people drop land lines for cell phones.

with this backdrop, the cell phone companies would appear to be in good shape. however the scenario is not that rosy....

• exhibit 1: deutsche telekom's possible plans to sell t-mobile.
• exhibit 2: after spending billions on next generation licenses and upgrades, uptake is still less than stellar

  Both T-Mobile and Cingular tout their investments in 3G data capabilities to match Verizon's headline grabbing EV-DO rollout, but outside the executive niche looking for embedded 3G PC adaptors, there is no market for such services. Last week T-Mobile Germany boasted that by breaking down the walled garden, ARPUs would blossom. But T-Mobile USA has touted budget, all-you-can eat GPRS for two years and it has few takers.

• exhibit 3: focusing on cheap phones in growth markets doesn't lend itself to garnering profitable customers

despite getting a tidy monthly sum from millions of subscribers, wireless companies appear set to join the cable industry as apparently promising industries which don't necessarily pan out (especially in terms of investment).